●AI BUBBLE●VC SIGNALING●VALUATION ●ASSET MANAGEMENT●AGAINST CONSENSUS●THE EBITDA TRAP ●AI BUBBLE●VC SIGNALING●VALUATION ●ASSET MANAGEMENT●AGAINST CONSENSUS●THE EBITDA TRAP

Finance · Data · Bold Theses

Were the lessons of the past ever truly learned, history would have no cause to repeat itself.

~Mehmet Akif Ersoy, from the poem “Kıssadan Hisse”

ISSUE № 07 WEEKLY ANALYSIS Istanbul · 2026

Research, not reassurance.

Most market commentary is written to comfort. This is not. Each piece advances a defensible position and states the conditions under which that position would fail. Analysis begins with evidence and concludes with conviction; absent either, nothing is published.

I start with data and end with conviction. If either one is missing, I don't publish.

Consensus is a starting point, not a conclusion. What the market already knows is reflected in the price. Opportunity lies where attention does not.

02
Every thesis must be falsifiable. A claim that cannot be disproven is not analysis. It is belief.

03
Conviction must rest on evidence. A position carries weight only to the extent the data supports it.

Were the lessons of the past ever truly learned, history would have no cause to repeat itself.

Latest Analysis

Research, not reassurance.

Every new piece, in your inbox the moment it's published.